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Yol · 12 Stations · 12 days · Mind & Psychology › Decisions

Think More Clearly

Someone who names the trap they're in, starts from the base rate, puts honest numbers on their beliefs, and changes their mind exactly as much as the evidence asks.

Nobody becomes immune to bias, and this Yol won't pretend otherwise. What it gives you is a handful of small habits drawn from several of the best books on judgement: catch the trap, check how common things really are, say how sure you are in numbers, and update in proportion. Five minutes a day. You'll still be wrong sometimes, just less often and less badly.

Spotting biasesSeparating facts from storiesThinking in probabilitiesUpdating on evidenceCalibrating confidence
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The road, station by station

0 of 12

  1. 01Scout or soldier: are you mapping or defending?

    ~5 min

    from The Scout Mindset

    Today’s Station — start →

  2. 02Three thinking traps hiding in your recent choices

    locked

    from The Art of Thinking Clearly

  3. 03Neat stories and the 'I knew it' feeling

    locked

    from The Art of Thinking Clearly

  4. Milestone

    Dissect one real decision

    Pick one decision you made in the last few weeks. Write down which bias or neat story most likely shaped it. Then, separately, write what you actually knew at the moment you chose. The gap between the two is your first piece of evidence about your own thinking.

  5. 04Why the world looks worse than it is

    locked

    from Factfulness

  6. 05Never trust a lonely number

    locked

    from Factfulness

  7. 06When fear and hurry do your thinking

    locked

    from Factfulness

  8. 07Decisions are bets: grade the choice, not the dice

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    from Thinking in Bets

  9. Milestone

    Open a decision journal

    Log one upcoming decision before you make it: the options, your reasoning, and the odds you expect for each outcome. Then leave it alone. When the result comes in, you'll be able to judge the quality of the choice separately from the luck of the outcome.

  10. 08Don't say 'I'm sure'. Say how sure you are

    locked

    from Thinking in Bets

  11. 09Start from the outside view, then break it down

    locked

    from Superforecasting

  12. 10Update in small steps, blend many views

    locked

    from Superforecasting

  13. 11Keep score on your own confidence

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    from Superforecasting

  14. Milestone

    Score ten forecasts

    Write ten forecasts with explicit probabilities about things that will resolve within a month, such as work, prices, sport, weather or anything else you can check. When they resolve, score them and see whether your confidence ran too high, too low or about right. There's no grade, just a starting point.

  15. 12Test your own views, and hold them loosely

    locked

    from The Scout Mindset

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