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Quote

“The market always recovers. Always. And, if someday it really doesn't, no investment will be safe and none of this financial stuff will matter anyway.”

— JL Collins, in The Simple Path to Wealth (2016) · The Simple Path to Wealth →

Why it was said

JL Collins makes this point in The Simple Path to Wealth, in the part of the book that deals with market crashes and why they frighten investors into selling. It supports his core advice: buy a broad index fund, keep buying, and hold through the falls rather than trying to time them.

What it actually means

Collins is not predicting when a recovery will come or promising it will be quick; some have taken years. His point is about what a fall means for someone with a long horizon who owns the whole market. For the broad market never to recover, the economy it represents would have to collapse, and in that world no bank account or alternative asset would be safe either. So selling in a panic does not protect you from the worst case; it only locks in the loss in the ordinary case. The line is meant to be read at the worst moment, as a reason to do nothing, which is often the hardest instruction to follow.

How to use it

  1. 1Before the next downturn, write one sentence explaining what you will do when your portfolio falls sharply, and keep it where you will see it.
  2. 2Check whether your plan depends on money you might need within a few years; Collins's argument is about long-horizon money, not next year's rent.
  3. 3During a fall, check the news less often rather than more; the decision you made in calm times is the one to follow.