BookYol

Author road · 12 Stations · 12 days · Mind & Psychology › Decisions

Think with Annie Duke's tools

12 Stations through Annie Duke's two books, from judging a decision apart from its outcome to knowing when to walk away, ending in a one-page quitting plan held by someone you trust.

We do not re-summarise Thinking in Bets. We connect two books: decisions as bets, judged apart from their outcomes, with beliefs as probabilities and a group that rewards accuracy; then Quit's case for stopping on time, with kill criteria, sunk costs, identity and the price of staying. The order is a teaching order designed by BookYol, not the author's own.

Judging decisions apart from outcomesStating beliefs as probabilitiesBuilding a group that rewards accuracySetting kill criteria in advanceWeighing the price of staying
Play Station 1 — free, ~5 min, no sign-up →

The road, station by station

0 of 12

  1. 01Every decision is a bet

    ~4 min

    from Thinking in Bets

    Today’s Station — start →

  2. 02Don't say 'I'm sure'. Say how sure you are

    locked

    from Thinking in Bets

  3. 03Luck or skill: sort each outcome honestly

    locked

    from Thinking in Bets

  4. 04A group that rewards accuracy, not agreement

    locked

    from Thinking in Bets

  5. 05Quitting on time feels like quitting too early

    locked

    from Quit

  6. 06Train the monkey before building the pedestal

    locked

    from Quit

  7. Milestone

    Bets judged honestly

    One decision is judged apart from its outcome, one belief carries a percentage, one result is sorted into luck and skill, one person who will tell you the truth is named, and the monkey of a project you keep 'for one more quarter' is written down.

  8. 07Kill criteria: decide now when you will stop

    locked

    from Quit

  9. 08What we have spent is not a reason to spend more

    locked

    from Quit

  10. 09What we already have looks better than it is

    locked

    from Quit

  11. 10When quitting means changing who we are

    locked

    from Quit

  12. 11The price of staying is everything else we could do

    locked

    from Quit

  13. 12A quitting coach and a one-page plan

    locked

    from Quit

  14. Milestone

    Destination: a quitting plan, and someone to hold it

    A one-page plan for a real commitment is written: its monkey, a kill criterion with a state and a date, what has been spent and the best alternative. The page is with a quitting coach, and the review date is in both your calendars.

The BookYol LetterTwo letters a week

For the road

The road is daily. The letter is weekly.

While you walk Think with Annie Duke's tools, two letters a week widen the view: a big idea on Tuesday and a small experiment on Friday, drawn from the same shelf of books.

Tuesday

The Big Idea

One idea that challenges an assumption, explained properly, with its source.

Friday

The Small Experiment

One small thing to try before Monday, so the idea becomes something you do.

Inside every letter

  1. 01The idea
  2. 02Why it works
  3. 03Where it comes from
  4. 04One thing to try

No spam, no selling your address. Just the letters.

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