Yol · 12 Stations · 12 days · Mind & Psychology › Decisions
Make Better Decisions
Someone who decides with a method: widens the options, tests the assumption, states a probability, gets distance from the emotion, prepares to be wrong, and judges the decision separately from the outcome.
Twelve Stations, one a day, from six books: the four villains, widening options, reality-testing, decisions as bets, calibration, anchors and frames, sunk costs, distance, premortems and tripwires, choice architecture, updating like a forecaster. It ends with a decision journal already in use, and a date in the month ahead to review it.
The road, station by station
01The four villains of decision-making
~4 minfrom Decisive
Today’s Station — start →
02Widen your options
lockedfrom Decisive
03Reality-test your assumptions
lockedfrom Decisive
04Every decision is a bet
lockedfrom Thinking in Bets
05How sure are you, in numbers
lockedfrom Superforecasting
06The anchor and the frame
lockedfrom Thinking, Fast and Slow
Milestone
One real decision, widened and tested
One real decision widened to at least three options, one assumption you have started testing with a disconfirming question or a small experiment, and a probability written as a number before the outcome is known. Not the right decision yet; a decision you can see being made.
07Sunk costs and the fear of losing
lockedfrom The Art of Thinking Clearly
08Attain distance before deciding
lockedfrom Decisive
09Prepare to be wrong
lockedfrom Decisive
10Design your own defaults
lockedfrom Nudge
11Update like a forecaster
lockedfrom Superforecasting
12Your decision journal
lockedfrom Thinking in Bets
Milestone
Destination: A decision-maker with a record
A decision journal with a month of entries, each with options, a probability, a premortem and a tripwire, and the first monthly review done separating decision quality from outcome quality. Not someone who is never wrong; someone who knows why when they are.