Concept
Confirmation bias
Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek out, notice and remember evidence that supports what we already believe, while discounting, or never looking for, evidence that could prove us wrong.
Confirmation bias rarely feels like a bias. It feels like research. Once you lean toward an idea, the way you phrase the question starts choosing the answer. Type "why X works" and you get pages explaining why X works. Ambiguous facts get read in your favour, and awkward ones get a quick excuse. Rolf Dobelli puts it among the most common thinking errors in The Art of Thinking Clearly, and it is the first of the everyday traps: hunting only for agreeing evidence. More information won't fix it. Looking in the other direction will. Darwin used a simple rule. He wrote down any observation that contradicted his theory straight away, because he noticed his memory dropped the inconvenient facts much faster than the welcome ones. The goal isn't to abandon your views. It's to hold views that have survived a real test.
A real-life example
Lena is sure an empty unit near her office is the perfect spot for a café. Every time she walks past at lunch, she counts the crowd and feels confirmed. She never goes at 3 p.m. on a rainy Tuesday, and she never asks why the last two tenants left. When she finally does both, she finds a quiet street and a rent that only works at lunchtime volume all day.
How to use it
- 1Before deciding, write one sentence naming the evidence that would change your mind. If you can't, you have a belief, not a tested view.
- 2Flip your search. Look up "why X fails" instead of "why X works," and put the idea to the person most likely to disagree.
- 3Apply Darwin's rule. Note every fact that cuts against your position the moment you meet it, because memory deletes those first.