Concept
Black Swans (in negotiation)
In Chris Voss's method, a black swan is an unknown unknown: a hidden piece of information that nobody anticipated and that, once uncovered, shifts the balance of a negotiation.
Voss borrows the term, popularised by Nassim Nicholas Taleb for rare events nobody predicts, and applies it in Never Split the Difference to what negotiators don't know they don't know: a hidden deadline, pressure from someone absent, an unspoken fear or interest. Black swans rarely surface through scripted questions. They appear in unscripted moments, in curiosity about the other side's world, and especially in behaviour that seems irrational. Voss's point is that people who appear irrational are usually ill-informed, constrained in ways you can't see, or holding interests they haven't disclosed. The mistake is labeling them difficult; the better question is 'What don't I know?'
A real-life example
A small hotel owner in Antalya can't see why a tour operator rejects a fair seasonal price. Over coffee at the end of the meeting she asks what was hardest about their year. The rep describes losing clients to another hotel's last-minute cancellations. The real issue is security, not price. She offers a cancellation-penalty clause and the contract is signed at the original price.
How to use it
- 1Before an important negotiation, write a list headed 'What might I not know here?'
- 2When the other side seems irrational, test three explanations: missing information, a hidden constraint, an undisclosed interest.
- 3Use the informal minutes before and after a meeting to ask about their world, not the deal.