Concept
Mediating Assessments Protocol
The mediating assessments protocol is a method for big decisions in which a few key assessments are defined in advance, each is evaluated separately on facts, and the overall judgment is delayed until all of them are in.
Kahneman and Sibony first described the protocol with Dan Lovallo, and Noise presents it as decision hygiene for one-off strategic choices such as an acquisition or a major investment. It generalises the logic of the structured interview. First, the decision is broken into a small number of mediating assessments, such as the quality of the management team or the financial risk. Second, each assessment is made independently, where possible by different people or at different times, using facts and comparisons with known cases rather than overall impressions. Third, the final judgment is postponed until every assessment is available, and they are discussed one at a time. Intuition is not banned but delayed, so that it is informed by the assessments instead of shaping them. The method limits the halo effect and stops an easy question from standing in for the hard one.
A real-life example
The owner of a textile firm in Denizli and her two partners choose a sales manager by first writing four qualities, then interviewing each finalist on two of them with the same questions and scoring every answer against a short description. Only after the scores are in do they meet. The candidate everyone liked ranks third on handling export clients.
How to use it
- 1Before the first meeting, write down the three to five assessments the decision really depends on.
- 2Have each assessment scored separately, ideally by comparison with known cases, and keep the overall view out of the room until all are done.
- 3Discuss the assessments one by one, then make the final judgment.