Quote
“Unpack the question into components. Distinguish as sharply as you can between the known and unknown and leave no assumptions unscrutinized.”
— Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner, in Superforecasting (2015) · Superforecasting →
Why it was said
Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner give this as part of their description of how superforecasters attack a hard question. Drawing on Fermi-style estimation, they show the best forecasters breaking a question they cannot answer into parts they can, before weighing the outside and inside views.
What it actually means
A big question like "Will this company survive the year?" invites a gut answer, and gut answers are where bias lives. The advice is to slow down and decompose: what would have to be true for survival, which of those things do we actually know, and which are guesses? Separating the known from the unknown shows where the real uncertainty sits, and scrutinising assumptions catches the ones you did not know you were making. The result is not certainty. It is a better-calibrated estimate, plus a clear list of what to watch as new information arrives.
How to use it
- 1Take one forecast you have to make this month and split it into three to five sub-questions.
- 2Mark each sub-question as known, estimable or unknown, and spend your research time on the unknowns.
- 3Write down the assumption you feel most sure of, and ask what evidence would change your mind.