“The average expert was roughly as accurate as a dart-throwing chimpanzee.”

Why it was said

In the first chapter of Superforecasting (2015), Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner sum up the punch line of Tetlock's earlier, two-decade study of expert political judgment in this sentence, and then warn that it has been widely misread.

What it actually means

The sentence became the most quoted result of Tetlock's research, usually as proof that experts are useless. Tetlock rejects that reading, and the word that matters is "average". Inside the average were two groups: experts organised around one big idea, who did little better than chance, and more eclectic, self-critical thinkers who did measurably better. Superforecasting is the story of finding and training more people like the second group. The lesson for decision-makers is not to ignore expertise but to ask for a track record. Confident commentary and accurate forecasting are different skills, and only one of them is usually measured.

How to use it

1. 1Before relying on a forecast, ask whether the person making it has a scored track record on similar questions.
2. 2Write down your own predictions with a probability and a date, and check them when the date arrives.