Concept
Decision quality versus outcome quality
Decision quality is how well a choice was made given what could be known at the time; outcome quality is how it turned out. Duke's four boxes, good or bad decision crossed with good or bad outcome, replace the two most people use.
Most people run on two boxes: it worked, so it was right; it failed, so it was wrong. Duke insists on four. Good decision, good outcome is skill rewarded. Good decision, bad outcome is a bad card, and the correct response is to make the same decision again. Bad decision, good outcome is luck, and the danger is that you will repeat the decision. Bad decision, bad outcome is the only box that contains a real lesson about the decision. Holding the boxes apart requires writing down, before the outcome, what you knew and why you chose, which is what a decision journal is for.
A real-life example
A manager hires a candidate after a careful process with three interviews and a work sample. The hire leaves after four months for a family reason nobody could have known. Good decision, bad outcome; the process should not change.
How to use it
- 1Sort every reviewed decision into one of four boxes, not two.
- 2Only change your process for decisions that were bad given what you knew.
- 3Record what you knew before the outcome arrives, or memory will rewrite it.