Concept
Emotion Before Statistics
Emotion before statistics is the finding that one named person moves people more than a number describing thousands — and that adding the number to the person reduces the effect. The honest use is the true story first, then the figure that shows it is not alone.
People asked to donate after reading statistics about hunger gave about half what people shown one named child gave; people shown the child and the statistics together gave less than those shown the child alone. Kahneman's account is that System 1 responds to the vivid individual and is nearly blind to base rates, and that a number does not merely fail to add; it switches the listener into an analytical mode that feels less. The Heaths draw the craft from this: to make people care, make them feel something for one person before you show them the scale. This is also where honesty matters most, because the single vivid case is the manipulator's favourite tool, the anecdote standing in for a trend that does not exist. The honest persuader therefore carries both: the true story that lets the listener feel it, followed by the number that proves the story is representative, in that order, and only if the number actually supports the story. The defence when a story is used on you is the base-rate question: this is one case; how many are there, and how many went the other way?
A real-life example
A food bank in Ankara could not get a sponsor past the first meeting with slides of tonnes distributed. It replaced the first slide with two minutes about one retired teacher, told with her permission, then the number of households like hers in that district. The sponsor signed for three years.
How to use it
- 1Open with one true person, told concretely and with permission, before any number.
- 2Follow with the figure that proves the case is representative; if the figure does not support the story, drop the story.
- 3When moved by a single case, ask how many there are and how many went the other way.