Concept
Anchoring
Anchoring is the cognitive bias by which the first number mentioned in a discussion pulls every later estimate and offer toward itself, even when that number is arbitrary.
Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky showed that people do not evaluate numbers in a vacuum — they adjust away from whatever figure arrived first, and they adjust too little. In their experiments, even a spin of a rigged wheel changed people's estimates of unrelated facts. In negotiation, this bias becomes a tool: the first serious number sets the range the rest of the conversation orbits. An ambitious opening offer does not just state a preference; it quietly redefines what "reasonable" means for both sides. The defense is not pretending to be immune — nobody is. It is preparation: when your own numbers are written down before the anchor lands, you can recognize the pull, name it, and re-anchor with your own figure instead of haggling inside theirs.
A real-life example
A used-car dealer opens at 950,000 lira for a car worth around 700,000. The buyer knows the market price, but the rest of the conversation still happens between 950 and 800 — until she resets it: "Listings for this model closed at 680–720 last month; I'm at 690." A new anchor, a new range.
How to use it
- 1Decide your target and walk-away numbers in writing before the other side can say a figure.
- 2When you are prepared, anchor first and ambitiously — but stay inside what you can justify out loud.
- 3When hit with an extreme anchor, don't counter near it; name it as high, restate the market evidence, and re-anchor at your number.